The Saturday Model · Record
Saturday Model
Saturday Model

Our Record

2026 season · 100 graded picks

59–39–2
Wins · Losses · On the number
+20.0u
Model return · at −110
31–18–1
Over/Under
28–21–1
Sides
60.2%
Win rate
+0.6 pts
Closing line value · beat the close 48 of 100
+3.1 pts
Final value · vs posted · 100 grades
Week by week
Week 06–460%+6.0u
Week 125–17–259.5%+7.8u
Week 214–863.6%+4.3u
Week 314–1058.3%+1.9u

Record · Win rate · Model units at −110

Model units

Cumulative return

Cumulative model units starts at 0 and ends at +20.0u at −110

Cumulative model units starts at 0 and ends at +20.0u at −110
Week by week

Week 0 +6.0u · Week 1 +7.8u · Week 2 +4.3u · Week 3 +1.9u

Weekly model units
Week 0 +6.0uWeek 1 +7.8uWeek 2 +4.3uWeek 3 +1.9u
Sides and totals

Sides +5.1u · Over/Under +14.8u

Sides +5.1u · Over/Under +14.8u
Sides +5.1uOver/Under +14.8u
Grade-time percent vs results

Grade-time percent vs results, n=98. Small sample. Not a reliability claim. 53–56%: mean 54.9%, results 6–5, n=11; 56–59%: mean 57.0%, results 31–19, n=50; 59–62%: mean 60.5%, results 4–4, n=8; >62%: mean 67.1%, results 18–11, n=29

Grade-time percent versus results
Percent bandMean percentResultsn
53–56%54.9%6–511
56–59%57.0%31–1950
59–62%60.5%4–48
>62%67.1%18–1129

Small sample. n=98. Not a reliability claim.

2026
59–39–2
Overall
31–18–1
Over/Under
28–21–1
Sides
How grades work
72u won · 45.5u lost · at −110
Week 0 +6.0u

Results land about 3 pts on the right side of the number. Wins by 9, losses by 10.

Week 0 uses the locked Week 1 percent. Later weeks freeze at post. Losses stay on the page. Grades use our posted number: the open for Early picks, 60 minutes before kickoff for Patient picks. A win pays 100 to 110. Kickoff times in Eastern. Closing line value is our posted number against the closing number at the same book, in points. Plus means the market moved our way after we posted. Final value is how far the score landed from our posted number, in points. Plus means we covered.

Published posts

2026 Week 0 Original picks ↗ Results ↗ Quote ↗
2026 Week 1 Original picks ↗ Original picks ↗ Original picks ↗ Results ↗ Results ↗ Results ↗ Quote ↗ Weekly recap
2026 Week 2 Original picks ↗ Results ↗ Quote ↗ Weekly recap
2026 Week 3 Original picks ↗

Published picks

100 picks across 80 games. Every win and loss stays on the record.

Original posts show the published selection. Pending final lines are recorded on the site.

All graded picks
80 games · ET

CLV = close vs posted. Final = score vs posted.

Sat, Sep 19

Fri, Sep 18

Sat, Sep 12

Mon, Sep 7

Sun, Sep 6

Sat, Sep 5

Fri, Sep 4

Thu, Sep 3

Sat, Aug 29

>62% 2u · 59-62 1.5u · 56-59 1u · 53-56 0.5u · sides cap 1u

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